COMMODITY NEWS AND TRADING LEVELS FOR 21ST MAY 2012

Commodity Trading Levels
COPPER (JUN) – Indian commodity futures market which witnessed rapid growth in trade volumes in the past few years has receded a bit in the first month of the current financial year (2012-13) with Forward Market Commission (FMC) data showing 10% decline. Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows:

TREND BEARISH

SUPPORT 1: 413.65
SUPPORT 2: 405.85

RESISTANCE 1: 428.75
RESISTANCE 2: 436.15

CRUDE OIL (MAY) – Bahrain oil production is expected to double to 100,000 barrels a day (bpd) from the current 50,000 bpd within five years, said Abdul-Hussain Ali Mirza, Bahrain’s energy minister. Expected resistance and support levels for the crude MAY contract are:

TREND BEARISH

SUPPORT 1: 4925
SUPPORT 2: 4815

RESISTANCE 1: 5155
RESISTANCE 2: 5275

GOLD (JUN) - A short-covering rally that has been a long time coming finally arrived for gold, with chart support emerging in the low $1,500s, which supported the market twice in 2011,.Resistance and support levels for the today’s session for Gold JUN contract which will expire IN JUNE 2012 are:

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT 1: 28280
SUPPORT 2: 27855

RESISTANCE 1: 29170
RESISTANCE 2: 29305

SILVER (JUL) United States mined silver production declined by 9% versus last year and was down 6% versus January’s levels, as per latest data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).Silver is Expected resistance and support levels for today trade are as follows:

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT 1: 53560
SUPPORT 2: 51200

RESISTANCE 1: 55095
RESISTANCE 2: 56135

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Market overview


The start today could be flat to tad positive. Most Asian indices are positive. European markets closed mixed on Friday even though the US markets suffered badly.

UPA II completes three tumultuous years in office today. There is unlikely to be much jubilation though given its poor track record in terms of governance. Some would even say it is lucky to be still there in power. There is definitely a crisis of confidence – both politically as well as economically. Surprisingly, the start of the second stint for the Congress-led regime was quite upbeat. Markets were certainly much more optimistic. But, nobody had any inkling that the scenario would reverse so dramatically. The question is: can UPA II leadership at least salvage some pride in the remaining two years?
The start today could be flat to tad positive. Most Asian indices are positive. European markets closed mixed on Friday even though the US markets suffered badly. Markets around the world remain pre-occupied with the eurozone crisis. Things are also slowing down in the US and China. For India, the biggest issue is a fragile rupee, which has been hit by a widening current account deficit and worsening economic fundamentals. UPA II should take a few bold policy actions rather than blame external events.

Indian markets continued their losing streak last week, with the Nifty now down for four straight weeks. Friday's recovery led to the formation of a ‘hammer pattern’ on weekly candlestick charts. The Nifty has been forming lower tops and lower bottom pattern and a move past 4930 levels could result in a relief rally towards 5030. Till then, the outlook remains cautious.
Global investors will be looking for signs of whether the US economy can continue to recover in the face of ongoing uncertainty about Greece and Spain. The European debt crisis will come back to the fore post the Facebook IPO.





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