FREE COMMODITY TIPS AND COMMODITY TRADING LEVELS FOR 5TH JULY 2012

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COPPER (AUG): While metal prices are likely be pressured by traders cutting long positions given an uncertain global demand outlook. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.1 percent to $7,719.25 per metric ton (1.1023 tons) by 9.15 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, after falling 1.2 percent in the prior session..Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows.

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT 1: 424.20

SUPPORT 2: 422.00

RESISTANCE 1: 430.60

RESISTANCE 2: 434.70

CRUDE OIL (JUL) : One day after surging more than 3 percent amid one of the biggest commodity-sector rallies ever, August Brent crude fell 91 cents to settle at $99.77 a barrel. NYMEX crude dipped 60 cents to $87.06 a barrel by 1745 GMT, with volumes thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Crude inventories tumbled by 3 million barrels in the week to June 29, well above the 1.9-million-barrel drawdown forecast by analysts, with Gulf Coast stocks off nearly 4.3 million barrels..Expected resistance and support levels for the crude JUN contract are:

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT1: 4640

SUPPORT2: 4523

RESISTANCE1: 4838

RESISTANCE2: 4919

GOLD (AUG): Gold held steady around USD 1,615 an ounce on Thursday, as the anticipation of a rate cut by the European Central Bank offset the impact of a stronger dollar. Spot gold was little changed at USD 1,614.79 an ounce by 0020 GMT.US gold futures contract for August delivery edged down 0.4% to USD 1,615.60.Resistance and support levels for the today’s session for Gold AUG contract 2012 are:

TREND CONSOLIDATE  

SUPPORT1: 29399

SUPPORT2: 29325

RESISTANCE1: 29592

RESISTANCE2: 29711

                                   

SILVER (SEP) : Silver for immediate delivery declined 0.5 percent to $28.125 an ounce..Some sees relative strength in silver as compared to gold. They advocates buying silver on dips at Rs 53,700 per kilogram with a stop loss of Rs 53,500 per kilogram for a target of 54,000-54,100 per kilogram on intraday basis.. Silver is Expected resistance and support levels for today trade are as follows:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 53465

SUPPORT2: 53225

RESISTANCE1: 53922

RESISTANCE2: 54139

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Be ready for a quiet start as investors await the outcome of monetary policy meetings in Europe and the UK. Market participants will also examine US data on weekly jobless claims, ADP private sector employment and ISM service sector PMI before Friday’s crucial monthly payroll report.

This time when the so-called 'God particle' appears to have been found, the markets around the globe are expecting for visible and invisible forces to bring a big bang. 

US markets were shut on Wednesday for the Independence Day holiday. European markets finished lower. 

This month Q1 FY13 results, besides data on IIP and inflation will be the events to keep an eye on. The RBI's month-end policy meeting is also likely to be crucial for the Indian markets. 


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Lake Shore Gold reports strong Q2 production

Lake Shore Gold (TSX: LSG.TO)(AMEX: LSG) announced strong second quarter results Wednesday with a total of 24,426 ounces of processed gold near the top of the Company's target range of 20,000 to 25,000 ounces.

Pan American Silver appoints Neil de Gelder to its Board of Directors

Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS: NASDAQ; PAA:TSX), world's leading primary silver mining company, has appointed Neil de Gelder to the company's Board of Directors.

Chile Copper production stabilizes but global market remains bearish

There are signs of copper output stabilizing in Chile, the world’s biggest producer, although challenges remain elsewhere, said Commerzbank, the second-largest bank in Germany, after Deutsche Bank.

Boom seen in Energy ETFs in 2H 2012

The first half of 2012 is history and investors may be tempted to look back at the past performance of ETF winners and losers to help guide future decisions. However, buying low and selling high is the name of the game. Bottom fishers may want to take a look at ETFs tracking energy and international stocks.

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COPPER (AUG): The copper market, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), is still suffering from supply deficit to the tune of an estimated 2, 73,000 ton in the first quarter of this year. There are plenty of statistical pitfalls in this sort of assessment. The benchmark cash-to-three-months period closed Thursday valued at $6.75 per ton backwardation. Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows.

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT 1: 424.50

SUPPORT 2: 4219.50

RESISTANCE 1: 433.10

RESISTANCE 2: 436.70

CRUDE OIL (JUL): International crude oil prices fell unexpectedly on Monday despite the start of European Union's sanctions against purchase of Iranian crude, as the potential drop in supplies was outweighed by concerns of falling global demand due to the economic uncertainty in Europe and the US. Brent crude fell about $2 a barrel to a little below $96 a barrel, while US crude dropped $1.4 to $83.5. Oil prices retreated after Brent's sharp rise of $6 a barrel on Friday, in anticipation of EU sanctions. Expected resistance and support levels for the crude JUN contract are:

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT1: 4380

SUPPORT2: 4537

RESISTANCE1: 4782

RESISTANCE2: 4870

GOLD (AUG): Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, as hopes of more easing from central banks after astringe of bleak global macroeconomic data from Europe to the United States supported bullion's appeal Spot gold was little changed at $1,595.79 an ounce by 0032 GMT. U.S. gold futures contract for August delivery traded nearly flat at $1,596.50.Resistance and support levels for the today’s session for Gold AUG contract 2012 are:

TREND CONSOLIDATE  

SUPPORT1: 29481

SUPPORT2: 29298

RESISTANCE1: 29824

RESISTANCE2: 29984

                                   

SILVER (JUL) – Silver prices, which slumped for four straight months, may rebound 25 percent after hitting a “double bottom,” according to technical analysis by Steel Vine Investments LLC.Silver futures for September delivery may climb to $34.50 an ounce this quarter after falling to $26.33 on Sept. 26 and $26.105 on June 28, this year’s low, said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine. Prices jumped 5 percent on June 29, the most since Jan. 3.Silver is Expected resistance and support levels for today trade are as follows:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 52842

SUPPORT2: 52391

RESISTANCE1: 53992

RESISTANCE2: 54691

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July is supposed to be a crucial month for various summer crops (kharif). A normal southwest monsoon also helps in the winter farming season (rabi) as it builds up the reservoirs across the nation.  monsoon is likely to be the biggest headache in the near term, be it for the Government, farmers, consumers or companies.

The Nifty broke the 5080-5200 trading range after three weeks. The breakout point of 5200 could turn into a strong support. Data on IIP, inflation, corporate earnings and the RBI's month-end policy meeting will drive the sentiment all through July.

For the day, Indian markets will look out for data on merchandise exports.

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Indian Gold rush likely to pick up as prices stay below Rs 30,000

Indian gold imports likely to grow in the second half of this year as prices stayed below 30,000 rupees per 10 grams. The world's biggest consumer nation imported 250 tonnes of gold in the first six months of this year.

Eurozone events over next several days to influence Gold, Silver: HSBC

The near-term direction of the gold and silver markets could be influenced greatly by eurozone events and the direction of the euro, said HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC), a British multinational bank, in a commodities research note.

Rupee appreciation to prove favourable for gold, crude oil

On increased capital inflows amid stronger euro, the rupee rose marginally by 6 paise to trade at 55.55 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday at the Interbank Foreign Exchange.

Sharp fall in China PMI to impact industrial commodities

The decline in purchaser manufacture index(PMI) of China, the largest consumer of industrial commodities, is expected to be another blow to the global commodity markets which is already stricken with the European debt crisis.

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COPPER (JUN): All base metals were down over the week (except zinc) with copper recording $7,317 ton cash on Friday. The demand side continues to look weak with the ongoing European crisis exacerbated by less-than-satisfactory Chinese trade data pulling prices down. Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows.

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT 1: 412.10

SUPPORT 2: 409.5

RESISTANCE 1: 419.30

RESISTANCE 2: 424.00

CRUDE OIL (JUL) – Prices for Brent crude, the European benchmark, have already fallen from $US120 to under $US90 a barrel in less than two months as the euro zone crisis deepens and concern about the global economy mounts. The collapse will offer some much needed respite to motorists and energy bill-payers. Expected resistance and support levels for the crude JUN contract are:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 4469

SUPPORT2: 4422

RESISTANCE1: 4597

RESISTANCE2: 4678

GOLD (AUG) - Prices fell below the psychological $1,600/oz last week following Greek elections and FOMC meeting. Week-on-week, all precious metals, except silver, were down in London with gold losing 4.8 per cent, platinum 3.9 per cent and palladium 3.8 per cent. Bucking the trend, silver was up by a healthy 6.5 per cent.

In London on Friday, gold PM Fix was at $1,566/oz, down from the previous day’s $1,582/oz. Silver too followed suit with Friday AM Fix at $26.81/oz, down from $ 27.88/oz of the previous day. Resistance and support levels for the today’s session for Gold AUG contract 2012 are:

TREND BULLISH 

SUPPORT1: 29685

SUPPORT 2: 29528

RESISTANCE1: 30130

RESISTANCE2: 30148

                                   

SILVER (JUL) – After a sharp sell-off this week on concerns the global economy is slowing and disinflation may be taking hold, market watchers said they’re keeping an eye on events in Europe. Silver will likely fall through support at the $26 level, dragged down by fears of slowing economic growth. The $26.50-$26.70 area has offered support, but there’s not much reason to expect that area to hold. Silver is Expected resistance and support levels for today trade are as follows:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 52325

SUPPORT2: 51753

RESISTANCE1: 53960

RESISANCET2: 55023


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We expect a cautious start as most Asian markets are trading with a negative bias. US markets managed to close higher on Friday while their European counterparts closed in the red.

So, it remains to be seen what new measures the Government and/or the RBI announce this week to check the freefall in the rupee. Markets will also be keen to know as to who would take charge of the Finance Ministry once Pranab Mukherjee moves to Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Another area of concern for the Indian policymakers is the unsatisfactory start to the southwest monsoon. Volatility could gradually increase in light of the F&O expiry on Thursday.


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COPPER (JUN): Copper fell for a second day after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut growth forecasts and an expansion in stimulus program failed to meet some investor expectations. Three-month copper fell as much as 1.3 percent to $7,446.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and last traded at $7,462.75 at 10:57 a.m. Shanghai time. The contract slid by the most in almost two weeks yesterday. Copper for September delivery on the Comex dropped 0.7 percent to $3.3720 a pound..Expected resistance and support level for today trade are as follows.

TREND BULLISH

SUPPORT 1: 419.78

SUPPORT 2: 417.20

RESISTANCE 1: 422.68

RESISTANCE 2: 427.84

CRUDE OIL (JUL) – Oil rebounded from its biggest decline this year in New York, trimming a second weekly drop after a storm started to form in the Gulf of Mexico and prices approached a technical support level.

Futures gained as much as 0.6 percent after sliding 4 percent yesterday, the most since December

Expected resistance and support levels for the crude JUN contract are:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 4619

SUPPORT2: 4570

RESISTANCE1: 4747.62

RESISTANCE2: 4820

GOLD (AUG) Gold was set for its worst weekly loss this year after the U.S. Federal Reserve didn’t resume a debt purchase program even as the economy showed signs of slowing. Silver was poised for its worst week since December.

Spot gold fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,561.75 an ounce before trading at $1,562.75 by 10:24 a.m. in Singapore, down 4 percent this week, the most since the five days to Dec. 16. Bullion dropped 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 29

.Resistance and support levels for the today’s session for Gold AUG contract 2012 are:

TREND BULLISH  

SUPPORT1: 30097

SUPPORT2: 29896

RESISTANCE1: 30427

RESISTANCE2: 30508

                                   

SILVER (JUL) – Silver has been witnessing some selling pressure on higher levels. Some believes that it is going to Rs 55,000 per kilogram but at Rs 55,000 per kilogram we are seeing a good amount of selling coming in. Expects this to continue and silver might once again fall till Rs 53,000-53,200 per kilogram levels. So, analyst recommends selling silver on rallies at Rs 54,500 per kilogram with a stop loss of Rs 55,100 per kilogram for a downside target of Rs 53,200 per kilogram. Silver is Expected resistance and support levels for today trade are as follows:

TREND CONSOLIDATE

SUPPORT1: 53954

SUPPORT2: 53420

RESISTANCE1: 55023

RESISTANCE2: 55557.84

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We are looking at a gap-down opening but things could turn around later in the session given the intensity of fall in crude oil.

Crude oil has fallen and so has safe haven gold. US dollar seems to be the king right now. even after a bailout for Spanish banks and a favorable Greek election, uncertainties are around  the Eurozone debt crisis.

Central banks like the ECB and the RBI are not willing  to act, instead they liking to put the burden of task of rejuvenating the growth on the government . 

Central banks might have to surrender in case things get worse on the macro-economic front.